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From $5,589 in January to around $4,200 in October: what moves the safe-haven metal
Gold reached an all-time high of about $5,589 per ounce on 28 January 2026, according to Investing News Network, after a huge rally through 2025. By 1 October 2026, Fortune reported gold at about $4,177, roughly 25% below its peak, even though a war involving Iran began in February and oil has traded above $100. The main reasons are that the US Federal Reserve has switched from cutting to raising interest rates and that real yields and the dollar have risen, making non-yielding gold less attractive.
| Date | Price milestone |
|---|---|
| Mid-March 2025 | First breaks $3,000/oz |
| 17 October 2025 | About $4,379 |
| 26 December 2025 | About $4,550, the 2025 peak |
| 24 January 2026 | Passes $5,000 |
| 28 January 2026 | All-time high ~$5,589 |
| 2 February 2026 | Falls to about $4,400 |
| 23 February 2026 | Back above $5,200 |
| ~1 September 2026 | About $4,331 |
| 1 October 2026 | About $4,177 |
This is the biggest factor. In January 2026 the Fed held rates at 3.5–3.75%. After the oil shock pushed inflation up, it raised rates in September 2026 to 3.75–4%, and markets expect more hikes. Higher rates raise the return on bonds and cash, which pay interest while gold does not.
When Kevin Warsh was nominated as Fed chair in late January, markets saw him as a conventional, inflation-focused choice. Gold fell sharply in the days after.
Rate hikes and safe-haven flows into US assets have supported the dollar, making gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Much of the geopolitical risk premium was already in the price after the January spike on US–Iran tensions. Once fighting began, markets focused more on what the war meant for inflation and interest rates.
Gold and oil have moved differently this year. Oil rose because of physical supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Gold is more sensitive to monetary policy, and the inflation caused by expensive oil has led to higher rates, which weigh on gold.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
About $5,589 per ounce on 28 January 2026, according to Investing News Network.
Mainly because the Federal Reserve has started raising interest rates again, which makes interest-paying assets more attractive than gold. A stronger dollar has added to the pressure.
Not always. Conflict can trigger short-term spikes, but interest rates, the dollar and central-bank demand often matter more over months.
Yes. On 1 October 2026 gold was about 8% higher than a year earlier, according to Fortune, despite falling from its January peak.
Gold's 2026 path shows that the metal is not a simple bet on bad news. In a world where war leads to inflation and inflation leads to rate hikes, gold can fall even as tensions rise. Interest-rate policy, rather than headlines from the battlefield, is likely to drive its next move.
