Trump Pauses Iran Strike Plans Until After Midterms as Tehran Weighs Reply and Brent Holds Near $103

President Donald Trump has pledged that the United States will not strike Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, even as Washington keeps its naval blockade in place and Tehran weighs its reply to a US counterproposal. The pledge, posted on Truth Social on Thursday, October 8, helped calm oil markets that had jumped on reports the White House was weighing new attacks.

Trump wrote that the US would not attack Iran at any time before the midterms, while saying the blockade would remain in full force. He said his team was having productive discussions with Iran and claimed 22 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz in a single night, with none going to or from Iran. CBS News noted that a figure of that size would be similar to prewar levels.

The statement followed a report in The Atlantic that the White House had asked the Pentagon to prepare strike options for a possible resumption of attacks before the vote. Citing two administration officials, the magazine said a wider operation could instead come after the election. Trump has recently said the war would end soon, "maybe before the election."

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said messages are still being exchanged through intermediaries and that Tehran is reviewing Washington's response to its so-called seven-day plan, with a reply expected within a few days. Negotiations had appeared stalled since Trump rejected that proposal, which involved reopening the strait if the US met certain conditions.

Other signals were less conciliatory. President Masoud Pezeshkian said this week that talks with Washington were meaningless. An unnamed Iranian official told Reuters that US positions on nuclear enrichment clash with Iran's demands, while indicating some flexibility on details. Vice President JD Vance has suggested Iran must make a meaningful cut to enrichment capacity rather than give it up entirely. Iran's army also warned it could carry out preemptive strikes on US bases if necessary.

Brent crude climbed to about $105 a barrel on Thursday, up roughly 4%, before easing to around $103 after Trump's post. Prices had slipped below $100 on Wednesday after peaking near $108 in mid-September. International Energy Agency members have released about 325 million barrels of the 400 million promised in March, and G7 nations agreed last week to release a further 100 million barrels. Saudi Aramco's chief executive has called global stockpiles "scarily thin."

The USS Abraham Lincoln returned to San Diego on Thursday after a record 321-day deployment. A third carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, could reach the region as early as the end of October, US officials say. The war has killed 19 US troops and wounded more than 800, and a Congressional Research Service report counts at least 81 US aircraft and drones lost or damaged. On Thursday the Treasury sanctioned 17 vessels it described as the remnants of Iran's shadow fleet.

The conflict is spreading well beyond the Gulf. The Houthis claimed repeated missile attacks on Riyadh's King Khalid airport this week, and Saudi authorities said three people were killed in attacks on two airports on Tuesday and Wednesday. More than 200,000 people have been displaced in Yemen's reignited civil war, according to the UN's migration agency. Russian President Vladimir Putin told Pezeshkian he would do everything possible to help end the war.

Key markers include Iran's formal reply, the arrival of additional US forces, further attacks on tankers in Hormuz and how oil reacts after November 3. Analysts will also watch whether the pledge holds and whether talks produce anything beyond messages exchanged through intermediaries.